By Blaine Grisak (@bgrisakDTR)
LOS ANGELES, CA — The biggest move that the Los Angeles Rams made last offseason was the trade for quarterback Matthew Stafford. However, not only was it a big move, it was also a risky one. The team already had a serviceable quarterback in Jared Goff. They had shown that they can win with him, making the Super Bowl in 2018. As 2019 and 2020 showed though, Goff alone could only take them so far.
That thought process triggered the move for Stafford. With that said, Stafford came with his own question marks. While the talent was obvious as was the football intelligence, Stafford had been on a losing franchise for 12 years with minimal team support. We know the narratives at this point. Stafford never won the big one in Detroit, had suffered his fair share of bumps and bruises, and made just one Pro Bowl.
Would Stafford’s individual success be able to translate to a better team. After trading away two first round picks in addition to Goff, the Rams needed it to. Through the first five games it has. In fact, it can be argued that the Rams got exactly what they traded for: Matthew Stafford playing at a MVP level.
Let’s play a friendly game of “Name that Player:”
Player A: 4-1, 1,587 yds, 12 TDs, 3 INTs, 113.2 Rating
Player B: 4-1, 1,374 yds, 13 TDs, 2 INTs, 109.7 Rating.
Player C: 3-2, 1,271 yds, 11 TDs, 5 INTs, 99.1 Rating
Player D: 5-0, 1,513 yds, 14 TDs, 2 INTs, 112.7 Rating
Can you name the players?
Player A is Matthew Stafford this season with the Los Angeles Rams. The other three?
Aaron Rodgers last season when he won MVP is Player B. Player C is Lamar Jackson in his MVP season in 2019. Lastly, Player D is Patrick Mahomes‘ MVP season through five weeks in 2018. Stafford has the most yards and the best passer rating out of any of them.
It’s not just that Stafford is outperforming past MVPs through five weeks either in some areas. While Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray currently lead the MVP discussion, Matthew Stafford should absolutely be in the conversation. Looking at the numbers of those quarterbacks through five weeks:
Justin Herbert: 4-1, 1,576 yards 13 TDs, 3 INTs, 104.7 Rating
Josh Allen: 4-1, 1,370 yards, 12 TDs, 2 INTs, 102.5 Rating
Kyler Murray: 5-0, 1,512 yards, 10 TDs, 4 INTs, 113 Rating
Based on the raw numbers that a lot of the MVP voters will look at, Stafford is leading. The Rams quarterback has the most yards and outside of Murray, has a passer rating almost 10 full points higher.
It doesn’t stop there though. When looking at the deeper analytics, Stafford ranks at or near the top in a majority of those categories as well. On a completion percentage above expected plus efficiency per play level, Stafford trails just Kyler Murray in the MVP discussion.
It doesn’t just stop with numbers such as completion percentage over expectation and EPA. While those numbers show how much Stafford is adding to the offense and his overall efficiency, they don’t necessarily show his overall value. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, Stafford leads the entire NFL with 35.2%. In other words’ he’s playing 35.2% better than the average quarterback. That number is almost 10% higher than Patrick Mahomes at 26.9%.
Stafford also ranks second in DYAR which gives the value of the quarterback’s performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translates it into yardage. The Los Angeles Rams quarterback has 542 yards more than the average quarterback in his situations and trails only Tom Brady. In ESPN’s QBR, Stafford also trails only Tom Brady.
To show just how valuable Stafford is to the Rams offense, we’ll take a look at Pro Football Networks OVM (Offensive Value Metric). In OVM Stafford ranks ninth with a score of 28.96. Among those in the MVP conversation, Stafford trails only Murray who has a score just .26 points ahead of him and ranks eighth.
As mentioned, it’s hard to find a metric in which Stafford isn’t at or near the top. And if he’s not at the top, he’s at the very least close with those who are also considered the leaders of the MVP conversation. The even more impressive part is that Stafford is doing this among the league’s top competition.
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